Sick of my theories yet? Well too bad, here’s another!

Last week, with hat in hand, I posted how my theory of Quinn being Lundy’s and Deb’s shooter was null and void. Given that we have new evidence that shows the shooter is very likely Vince’s height, there’s just no way it could be Quinn without giving us some half-brained reasoning for why he was standing in a ditch at the time. So now the question is: is the shooter someone we’ve already met, or someone entirely new? I’m going with the latter.

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This episode pretty much shattered my theory that Quinn could be Lundy’s and Deb’s shooter, if we’re supposed to trust the new evidence that the shooter is Vince’s height. As you can see from the image above, Masuka is quite a bit shorter than Quinn, so unless he was crouched or standing in a pothole, Quinn is not the guilty one here.

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After the dramatic entrance of V last week, there were no similar big splash stories to lead things off this week. Then, as I was perusing the year-ago numbers, something occurred to me. It’s quite possible that FOX could improve both Monday and Thursday at 9:00 if they swapped Fringe and Lie To Me. If you look back to the initial Fringe run, it had a lot of success following House. In fact, while the House numbers are virtually unchanged from Tuesday to Monday, Fringe was holding much more of the House audience on Tuesday than Lie To Me currently is on Monday.

Example:
11/18/08: House (13.03m/5.5), Fringe (9.36m/4.2)
11/09/09: House (13.31m/5.3), Lie To Me (7.41m/3)

And that was against very similar competition. Both faced DWTS on ABC, which was pretty much a wash. NBC was greatly improved against Fringe with Biggest Loser (7.84m/3.3), as opposed to Trauma (5.35m/1.8). And CBS was mixed, with The Mentalist (15.83m/3.5) trailing the Men/Big Bang hour (13.62m/4.6) in the demo.

Now we look at where we are this season. Fringe did manage something of a rebound this week, finishing with (5.91m/2.2) on Thursday. That’s still a distant fourth place, and should find the show on the hot seat at the end of the season. It would, obviously, do better on Monday following House. The question is, would it do better than the (7.41m/3) that Lie To Me is currently offering? I think it would.

On the other side of that coin, while I’m not quite as confident about the move of Lie To Me to Thursday, I do still see the potential for it to outperform the current Fringe numbers. That bar has been set, after all, rather low. It would likely take a  hit in the move, but the end result would be that Thursday at 9:00 is stronger as well. Just something to think about. The usual numbers junk is after the jump. Read the rest of this entry »

The World Series was the big ratings winner last week, but with New York involved, everyone kind of expected that, right? What nobody expected — most notably ABC — was the success of the V premiere. The numbers weren’t just good. It was the highest rated scripted program on the network, topping the Housewives and Grey’s. Even better, the V demo rating was the highest for a scripted show on any of the networks.  Someone at ABC has to be kicking themselves for only ordering four episodes of V, while they continue to crank out more Hanks than they know what to do with. Read the rest of this entry »

Dexter (thinks): “I have to find the right activity for Astor. What did I like to do when I was twelve? … OK then, moving on.”

Well well well. It appears I spoke too soon in my wondering where Dexter’s non-Trinity killings were. I guess I sold Dexter’s habit short. He couldn’t deal with waiting even one or two more days to kill Farrow, performing his own version of sneaking out for a smoke during his camping trip with Cody. However, usually when someone goes out for a cigarette break they don’t grab the wrong brand.
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In case you missed the details in Sunday night’s episode, a close-up of Dexter’s new slide box reveals that, at least since obtaining his new trophy case, he’s filled it with blood slides of 23 victims. So far it appears that Dexter’s got only one kill on his mind, and that’s Trinity; I just can’t imagine we’d get a “filler” episode at this point, where Dexter needs to go get his rocks off while he’s plotting how to take down Trinity.

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A combination of baseball and pre-sweeps repeats made for a bit of an odd week. Repeats don’t mean there aren’t numbers of note however. We had Jay Leno’s first shot against CSI: Miami and NY repeats, and a look at what running repeats on Friday does for FOX. That is, nothing good for Dollhouse season 3. Also interesting this week — The Mentalist finally topped CSI in viewers and the demo, and even a repeat Gibbs appearance is worth 16 million viewers. Read the rest of this entry »